Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

397.68 – 270.61

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 97.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.6 ±11.4

6186Hope BotCats

Season APEX 17.4Event APEX -8.96Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4499The Highlanders

A+

Season APEX 301.1Event APEX 207.6Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 199.04Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±11.9

5437Rocky Balboabots

Season APEX 6.1Event APEX 4.36Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 83

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 122.01Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3937Breakaway

Season APEX 263.8Event APEX 144.24Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6186, 4499, 4522

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6186, 4499, 4522

Auto

60.8 15%

Teleop

233.4 59%

Endgame

98.2 25%

Strengths

· 4499 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5437, 4766, 3937

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 5437, 4766, 3937

Auto

49.9 18%

Teleop

147.9 55%

Endgame

72.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score397.7pts

Blue projected score270.6pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample130alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.1
Score range: 241–428
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 167.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.6Season APEX476

60.8Auto49.9

233.4Teleop147.9

98.2Endgame72.6

20Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	36
teleop	157	95
endgame	51	78
foul	15	0
total	264	209

Result

Final score

264 – 209

Prediction correct · off by 97.6 pts

Match videos

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