Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

577.06 – 533.16

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

568 – 535

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 871.3 ±8.7

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 124.66Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 231.39Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 221.01Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 823.4 ±8.7

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 166.71Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 188.79Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 177.66Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 971, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

577.1 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 5010, 971, 1241

Auto

108.5 19%

Teleop

291.0 52%

Endgame

165.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9032, 1261, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

533.2 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9032, 1261, 3476

Auto

94.1 18%

Teleop

310.1 59%

Endgame

121.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.13 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score577.1pts

Blue projected score533.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 454–656
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1103 vs event baseline 436.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

871.3Season APEX823.4

108.5Auto94.1

291Teleop310.1

165.4Endgame121.3

103Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	105
teleop	331	289
endgame	141	141
foul	0	0
total	568	535

Result

Final score

568 – 535

Prediction correct · off by 5.4 pts

Match videos

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