Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

718.65 – 627.18

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

800 – 611

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1095.6 ±8.8

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 280.36Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 271.8Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 166.49Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 905.8 ±9.3

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 198.47Rank 9Record 8-1-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 221.41Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 207.3Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1114, 27, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

718.7 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1114, 27, 4096

Auto

175.8 25%

Teleop

382.3 54%

Endgame

151.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2106, 1868, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

627.2 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2106, 1868, 4646

Auto

113.4 19%

Teleop

329.2 54%

Endgame

165.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.43 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score718.7pts

Blue projected score627.2pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.5
Score range: 549–797
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1411 vs event baseline 434.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1095.6Season APEX905.8

175.8Auto113.4

382.3Teleop329.2

151.5Endgame165.4

75Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	191	142
teleop	417	263
endgame	192	196
foul	0	10
total	800	611

Result

Final score

800 – 611

Prediction correct · off by 48.8 pts

Match videos

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