Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

730.69 – 598.51

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

688 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 75.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 991.5 ±8.7

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 196.72Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 222.68Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 311.29Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 871.3 ±8.7

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 131.74Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 238.27Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 228.5Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7407, 5940, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

730.7 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 7407, 5940, 9470

Auto

159.1 22%

Teleop

367.2 50%

Endgame

201.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5010, 971, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

598.5 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 5010, 971, 1241

Auto

108.9 19%

Teleop

314.8 54%

Endgame

164.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.64 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score730.7pts

Blue projected score598.5pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 132.2
Score range: 521–809
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1178 vs event baseline 433.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

991.5Season APEX871.3

159.1Auto108.9

367.2Teleop314.8

201.1Endgame164.4

140Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	156	106
teleop	331	197
endgame	181	167
foul	20	20
total	688	490

Result

Final score

688 – 490

Prediction correct · off by 75.6 pts

Match videos

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