Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

489.36 – 557.84

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

360 – 629

Prediction correct · off by 100.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 849.9 ±8.7

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 133.85Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 154.24Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 201.27Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 858.4 ±8.7

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 200.27Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 184.93Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 172.64Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 131, 5468, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

489.4 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 131, 5468, 7166

Auto

103.7 21%

Teleop

248.7 51%

Endgame

137.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8608, 1261, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

557.8 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 8608, 1261, 3476

Auto

105.4 19%

Teleop

310.0 56%

Endgame

136.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.59 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score489.4pts

Blue projected score557.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.5
Score range: 411–636
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 989 vs event baseline 433.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

849.9Season APEX858.4

103.7Auto105.4

248.7Teleop310

137.1Endgame136.5

172Consistency158

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	69
teleop	165	432
endgame	141	128
foul	0	0
total	360	629

Result

Final score

360 – 629

Prediction correct · off by 100.3 pts

Match videos

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