Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

589.44 – 575.16

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

643 – 842

Prediction missed · off by 160.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 853.7 ±8.7

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 190.87Rank 13Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 181.73Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 216.84Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 963.9 ±9.3

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 152.1Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 196.83Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 226.23Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 103, 2767, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

589.4 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 103, 2767, 2539

Auto

89.8 16%

Teleop

301.8 53%

Endgame

173.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6459, 3045, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

575.2 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 6459, 3045, 10021

Auto

107.4 19%

Teleop

311.9 54%

Endgame

156.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score589.4pts

Blue projected score575.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.3
Score range: 497–667
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1485 vs event baseline 430.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

853.7Season APEX963.9

89.8Auto107.4

301.8Teleop311.9

173.7Endgame156.2

127Consistency172

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	167
teleop	301	464
endgame	199	201
foul	20	10
total	643	842

Result

Final score

643 – 842

Prediction missed · off by 160.2 pts

Match videos

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