Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

603 – 665.34

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

431 – 487

Prediction correct · off by 175.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 858.4 ±8.7

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 215.94Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 200.76Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 186.3Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 905.8 ±9.3

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 212.68Rank 9Record 8-1-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 233.9Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 218.76Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8608, 1261, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

603 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 8608, 1261, 3476

Auto

102.0 17%

Teleop

348.4 58%

Endgame

146.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2106, 1868, 4646

/ 100 compat

Projected

665.3 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2106, 1868, 4646

Auto

128.5 20%

Teleop

356.8 55%

Endgame

160.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.65 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score603pts

Blue projected score665.3pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.3
Score range: 525–743
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 918 vs event baseline 430.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

858.4Season APEX905.8

102Auto128.5

348.4Teleop356.8

146.2Endgame160.7

153Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	116	57
teleop	201	229
endgame	109	181
foul	5	20
total	431	487

Result

Final score

431 – 487

Prediction correct · off by 175.2 pts

Match videos

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