Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

692.46 – 520.13

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

811 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 122.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 1095.6 ±8.8

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 274.1Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 261.93Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 156.43Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 849.9 ±8.7

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 141.8Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 165.6Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 212.73Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1114, 27, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

692.5 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1114, 27, 4096

Auto

161.4 24%

Teleop

368.5 54%

Endgame

153.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 131, 5468, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

520.1 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 131, 5468, 7166

Auto

102.3 20%

Teleop

266.0 51%

Endgame

151.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.7 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score692.5pts

Blue projected score520.1pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 172.3
Score range: 443–769
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1204 vs event baseline 429.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

1095.6Season APEX849.9

161.4Auto102.3

368.5Teleop266

153.3Endgame151.9

96Consistency170

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	224	109
teleop	432	190
endgame	145	94
foul	10	0
total	811	393

Result

Final score

811 – 393

Prediction correct · off by 122.8 pts

Match videos

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