Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
553.43 – 601.79
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
719 – 493
Prediction missed · off by 137.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 871.3 ±8.7
Season APEX 219Event APEX 113.98Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 225.96Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 213.49Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 963.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 164.49Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 203.35Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 283Event APEX 233.95Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5010, 971, 1241
78
/ 100 compatProjected
553.4 pts
~1.6 RP (championship)
Teams: 5010, 971, 1241
Auto
97.0 18%
Teleop
293.8 54%
Endgame
155.8 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6459, 3045, 10021
87
/ 100 compatProjected
601.8 pts
~2.2 RP (championship)
Teams: 6459, 3045, 10021
Auto
127.6 21%
Teleop
334.2 55%
Endgame
140.4 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 29%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.57 · Blue 2.22
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score553.4pts
Blue projected score601.8pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample282alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 64%
Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 27%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -48.4
- Score range
- 476–679
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
871.3Season APEX963.9
97Auto127.6
293.8Teleop334.2
155.8Endgame140.4
108Consistency166
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 143 | 52 |
| teleop | 370 | 241 |
| endgame | 186 | 200 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 719 | 493 |
Result
Final score
719 – 493
Prediction missed · off by 137.2 pts
Match videos
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