Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

687.57 – 553.93

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

720 – 584

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 994.1 ±9.3

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 155.33Rank 37Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 220.25Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 311.99Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 827.8 ±8.7

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 214.99Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 179.04Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 159.9Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3006, 5940, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

687.6 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3006, 5940, 9470

Auto

147.4 22%

Teleop

350.9 52%

Endgame

179.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2539, 2767, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

553.9 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 2539, 2767, 2583

Auto

139.5 25%

Teleop

294.1 53%

Endgame

117.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score687.6pts

Blue projected score553.9pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 133.6
Score range: 477–765
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1304 vs event baseline 426.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

994.1Season APEX827.8

147.4Auto139.5

350.9Teleop294.1

179Endgame117.5

148Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	164	72
teleop	382	279
endgame	174	168
foul	0	65
total	720	584

Result

Final score

720 – 584

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Match videos

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