Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

684.22 – 661.97

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

580 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 153.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 991.5 ±8.7

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 178.02Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 209.86Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 296.34Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 963.9 ±9.3

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 183.57Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 223.66Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 254.74Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7407, 5940, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

684.2 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 7407, 5940, 9470

Auto

137.4 20%

Teleop

344.5 51%

Endgame

194.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6459, 3045, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

662 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 6459, 3045, 10021

Auto

123.6 19%

Teleop

358.3 54%

Endgame

176.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score684.2pts

Blue projected score662pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.3
Score range: 583–763
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 1039 vs event baseline 441.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

991.5Season APEX963.9

137.4Auto123.6

344.5Teleop358.3

194.7Endgame176

143Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	129	130
teleop	287	244
endgame	164	70
foul	0	15
total	580	459

Result

Final score

580 – 459

Prediction correct · off by 153.6 pts

Match videos

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