Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

654.08 – 575.69

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

710 – 658

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 963.9 ±9.3

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 180.98Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 220.66Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 252.44Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 871.3 ±8.7

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 120.36Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 233.44Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 221.89Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6459, 3045, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

654.1 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 6459, 3045, 10021

Auto

127.6 20%

Teleop

357.7 55%

Endgame

164.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5010, 971, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

575.7 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 5010, 971, 1241

Auto

107.1 19%

Teleop

297.7 53%

Endgame

160.9 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.38 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score654.1pts

Blue projected score575.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.4
Score range: 497–733
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1368 vs event baseline 439.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

963.9Season APEX871.3

127.6Auto107.1

357.7Teleop297.7

164.1Endgame160.9

114Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	133
teleop	362	348
endgame	249	177
foul	0	0
total	710	658

Result

Final score

710 – 658

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 pts

Match videos

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