Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

723 – 732.19

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

505 – 642

Prediction correct · off by 154.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 991.5 ±8.7

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 192.65Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 220.56Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 309.79Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1095.6 ±8.8

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 283.74Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 275.74Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 172.71Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7407, 5940, 9470

/ 100 compat

Projected

723 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 7407, 5940, 9470

Auto

157.4 22%

Teleop

361.3 50%

Endgame

197.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1114, 27, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

732.2 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1114, 27, 4096

Auto

178.1 25%

Teleop

387.9 53%

Endgame

159.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score723pts

Blue projected score732.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.2
Score range: 644–811
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1147 vs event baseline 438.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

991.5Season APEX1095.6

157.4Auto178.1

361.3Teleop387.9

197.3Endgame159.2

140Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	157
teleop	265	314
endgame	187	161
foul	10	10
total	505	642

Result

Final score

505 – 642

Prediction correct · off by 154.1 pts

Match videos

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