Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
624.34 – 627.44
49%51%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
290 – 767
Prediction correct · off by 237 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 905.8 ±9.3
Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 197.22Rank 9Record 8-1-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 220.54Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 206.58Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 963.9 ±9.3
Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 170.31Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 212.7Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 283Event APEX 244.43Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 2106, 1868, 4646
86
/ 100 compatProjected
624.3 pts
~2.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 2106, 1868, 4646
Auto
118.6 20%
Teleop
317.2 52%
Endgame
171.1 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6459, 3045, 10021
86
/ 100 compatProjected
627.4 pts
~1.9 RP (championship)
Teams: 6459, 3045, 10021
Auto
119.3 19%
Teleop
341.9 55%
Endgame
164.5 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 67%
Supercharged: 33%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2 · Blue 1.95
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score624.3pts
Blue projected score627.4pts
Red win probability49%
Event bonus sample282alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 67%, blue 64%
Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 27%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -3.1
- Score range
- 545–706
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
905.8Season APEX963.9
118.6Auto119.3
317.2Teleop341.9
171.1Endgame164.5
142Consistency126
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 139 | 162 |
| teleop | 110 | 425 |
| endgame | 36 | 160 |
| foul | 5 | 20 |
| total | 290 | 767 |
Result
Final score
290 – 767
Prediction correct · off by 237 pts
Match videos
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