Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

182.24 – 450.49

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 561 ±11.2

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 107.82Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 62.83Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX 11.59Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 901.9 ±9.9

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 100.63Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 216.79Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 133.07Rank 45Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 1646, 10162

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.2 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 5010, 1646, 10162

Auto

53.8 30%

Teleop

83.7 46%

Endgame

44.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 3045, 9001

/ 100 compat

Projected

450.5 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5338, 3045, 9001

Auto

93.8 21%

Teleop

224.9 50%

Endgame

132.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score182.2pts

Blue projected score450.5pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -268.2
Score range: 106–526
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 655 vs event baseline 422.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

561Season APEX901.9

53.8Auto93.8

83.7Teleop224.9

44.4Endgame132.4

154Consistency146

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	84
teleop	100	252
endgame	37	124
foul	0	5
total	190	465

Result

Final score

190 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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