Qualification · Qualification 96

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

463.87 – 154.21

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

367 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 596.3 ±8.7

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 204.21Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 171.86Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 87.8Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 558.7 ±9.3

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 100.05Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 10.33Rank 68Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 43.83Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1261, 3494, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

463.9 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1261, 3494, 7598

Auto

69.8 15%

Teleop

254.9 55%

Endgame

140.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1731, 1648, 11019

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.2 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1731, 1648, 11019

Auto

46.8 30%

Teleop

97.7 63%

Endgame

11.1 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score463.9pts

Blue projected score154.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 309.7
Score range: 78–540
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 556 vs event baseline 424.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

596.3Season APEX558.7

69.8Auto46.8

254.9Teleop97.7

140.3Endgame11.1

195Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	45
teleop	213	92
endgame	66	52
foul	0	0
total	367	189

Result

Final score

367 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 65.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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