Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

375.99 – 303.69

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

452 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 669.7 ±9.3

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 140.85Rank 40Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 88.52Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 146.62Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631 ±10.5

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 98.84Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 19.72Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 185.13Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4272, 5801, 2137

/ 100 compat

Projected

376 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 4272, 5801, 2137

Auto

79.8 22%

Teleop

206.6 56%

Endgame

80.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6907, 11297, 7407

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.7 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6907, 11297, 7407

Auto

68.4 24%

Teleop

148.2 51%

Endgame

73.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.22 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score376pts

Blue projected score303.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.3
Score range: 228–452
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 871 vs event baseline 424.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

669.7Season APEX631

79.8Auto68.4

206.6Teleop148.2

80.8Endgame73.6

158Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	124
teleop	174	163
endgame	176	127
foul	30	5
total	452	419

Result

Final score

452 – 419

Prediction correct · off by 95.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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