Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

281.45 – 566.17

3%97%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 498

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 560 ±9.9

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 192.43Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 62.62Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 26.4Rank 74Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 730.4 ±10.5

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 200.84Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 133.78Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 231.55Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1189, 7525, 9771

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.5 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 1189, 7525, 9771

Auto

70.6 25%

Teleop

143.6 51%

Endgame

69.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4646, 11387, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

566.2 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4646, 11387, 7166

Auto

136.5 24%

Teleop

269.2 48%

Endgame

159.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score281.5pts

Blue projected score566.2pts

Red win probability3%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -284.7
Score range: 204–643
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 715 vs event baseline 425.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

560Season APEX730.4

70.6Auto136.5

143.6Teleop269.2

69.2Endgame159.3

153Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	62
teleop	113	330
endgame	72	91
foul	0	15
total	217	498

Result

Final score

217 – 498

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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