Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

406.78 – 412.96

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

488 – 430

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.2 ±9.8

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 213.61Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 33.51Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 159.66Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 849 ±11.7

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 150.14Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 140.69Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 122.13Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2539, 587, 4593

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.8 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2539, 587, 4593

Auto

92.3 23%

Teleop

220.7 55%

Endgame

85.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1619, 4096, 9126

/ 100 compat

Projected

413 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 1619, 4096, 9126

Auto

119.5 29%

Teleop

205.6 50%

Endgame

87.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score406.8pts

Blue projected score413pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.2
Score range: 330–490
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 918 vs event baseline 425.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.2Season APEX849

92.3Auto119.5

220.7Teleop205.6

85.9Endgame87.2

144Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	75	82
teleop	246	257
endgame	162	71
foul	5	20
total	488	430

Result

Final score

488 – 430

Prediction missed · off by 49.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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