Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

532.37 – 429

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

578 – 478

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 950.8 ±8.7

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 176.94Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 226.88Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 128.55Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 761.9 ±8.7

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 90.24Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 181.25Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 157.51Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1241, 5940, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

532.4 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1241, 5940, 8884

Auto

108.7 21%

Teleop

270.1 51%

Endgame

147.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 548, 5468, 1501

/ 100 compat

Projected

429 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 548, 5468, 1501

Auto

80.5 19%

Teleop

235.4 55%

Endgame

110.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.63 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score532.4pts

Blue projected score429pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103.4
Score range: 353–608
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1056 vs event baseline 424.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

950.8Season APEX761.9

108.7Auto80.5

270.1Teleop235.4

147.4Endgame110.6

157Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	133	104
teleop	295	234
endgame	145	135
foul	5	5
total	578	478

Result

Final score

578 – 478

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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