Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

433.24 – 431.38

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

470 – 416

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 678.3 ±8.7

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 141.85Rank 40Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 89.03Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 202.36Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 765 ±9.8

4728ROCORI Robotics

Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 75.92Rank 67Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 177.91Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 177.55Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4272, 7598, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.2 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4272, 7598, 10021

Auto

68.2 16%

Teleop

249.7 58%

Endgame

115.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4728, 3494, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

431.4 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 4728, 3494, 6459

Auto

62.9 15%

Teleop

247.2 58%

Endgame

114.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score433.2pts

Blue projected score431.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.9
Score range: 355–509
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 886 vs event baseline 420.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

678.3Season APEX765

68.2Auto62.9

249.7Teleop247.2

115.5Endgame114

190Consistency165

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	75
teleop	259	224
endgame	149	112
foul	0	5
total	470	416

Result

Final score

470 – 416

Prediction correct · off by 26.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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