Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

336.61 – 336.22

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

393 – 522

Prediction missed · off by 121.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 666.4 ±10.5

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 7.5Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 206.68Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 122.43Rank 37Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.9 ±9.3

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 70.24Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 83.02Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 182.96Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11297, 2767, 3006

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.6 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 11297, 2767, 3006

Auto

79.5 24%

Teleop

196.8 59%

Endgame

57.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6907, 5010, 1261

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.2 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 6907, 5010, 1261

Auto

82.0 25%

Teleop

148.6 46%

Endgame

95.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score336.6pts

Blue projected score336.2pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.4
Score range: 260–413
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 915 vs event baseline 419.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

666.4Season APEX694.9

79.5Auto82

196.8Teleop148.6

57.6Endgame95.1

175Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	48
teleop	173	306
endgame	60	163
foul	55	5
total	393	522

Result

Final score

393 – 522

Prediction missed · off by 121.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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