Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

502.69 – 472.35

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

497 – 487

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 809.2 ±8.1

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 7.41Rank 68Record 2-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 265.12Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 230.16Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 717.9 ±8.7

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 102.68Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 152.91Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 216.76Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1648, 27, 7166

/ 100 compat

Projected

502.7 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1648, 27, 7166

Auto

123.3 25%

Teleop

264.6 53%

Endgame

107.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10015, 1501, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

472.4 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10015, 1501, 2539

Auto

112.6 24%

Teleop

269.0 57%

Endgame

88.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score502.7pts

Blue projected score472.4pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.3
Score range: 396–579
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 984 vs event baseline 420.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

809.2Season APEX717.9

123.3Auto112.6

264.6Teleop269

107.7Endgame88.5

151Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	149
teleop	252	242
endgame	127	96
foul	0	0
total	497	487

Result

Final score

497 – 487

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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