Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

406.27 – 395.16

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

484 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 792.3 ±9.3

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 28Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 213.02Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 165.25Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 683.1 ±9.3

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 174.21Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 130.27Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 90.68Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 587, 8608, 1241

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.3 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 587, 8608, 1241

Auto

72.5 18%

Teleop

248.5 61%

Endgame

89.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9032, 8884, 9427

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.2 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 9032, 8884, 9427

Auto

75.0 19%

Teleop

242.5 61%

Endgame

77.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score406.3pts

Blue projected score395.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.1
Score range: 320–481
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 876 vs event baseline 419.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

792.3Season APEX683.1

72.5Auto75

248.5Teleop242.5

89.6Endgame77.3

146Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	74
teleop	224	236
endgame	135	77
foul	20	5
total	484	392

Result

Final score

484 – 392

Prediction correct · off by 40.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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