Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

201.3 – 419.13

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

178 – 436

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 503.3 ±9.8

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 89.07Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 54.37Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 57.86Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 822.3 ±9.3

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 210.69Rank 9Record 8-1-1Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 116.41Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 92.03Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5801, 5829, 8817

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.3 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 5801, 5829, 8817

Auto

38.9 20%

Teleop

135.7 68%

Endgame

24.3 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2106, 2847, 548

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.1 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2106, 2847, 548

Auto

80.3 20%

Teleop

227.9 55%

Endgame

102.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score201.3pts

Blue projected score419.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -217.8
Score range: 125–495
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 421.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

503.3Season APEX822.3

38.9Auto80.3

135.7Teleop227.9

24.3Endgame102.8

150Consistency167

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	82
teleop	134	235
endgame	35	74
foul	0	45
total	178	436

Result

Final score

178 – 436

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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