Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

469.89 – 419.25

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

421 – 463

Prediction missed · off by 46.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 783.4 ±9.9

3045Gear Gremlins

Season APEX 355.6Event APEX 233.56Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 105.77Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 130.56Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.7 ±8.7

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 146.05Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 208.43Rank 13Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 64.77Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3045, 1511, 3572

/ 100 compat

Projected

469.9 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3045, 1511, 3572

Auto

117.2 25%

Teleop

252.2 55%

Endgame

91.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2137, 103, 5665

/ 100 compat

Projected

419.3 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2137, 103, 5665

Auto

82.5 20%

Teleop

202.5 49%

Endgame

132.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.31 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score469.9pts

Blue projected score419.3pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.6
Score range: 343–546
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 884 vs event baseline 420.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

783.4Season APEX694.7

117.2Auto82.5

252.2Teleop202.5

91.5Endgame132.2

131Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	94
teleop	187	206
endgame	120	138
foul	0	25
total	421	463

Result

Final score

421 – 463

Prediction missed · off by 46.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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