Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

456.23 – 511.69

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

591 – 475

Prediction missed · off by 85.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 767.3 ±9.9

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 126.03Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 206.71Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 123.49Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 758.8 ±10.5

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 163.95Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 117.87Rank 49Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 229.87Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 131, 5940, 11387

/ 100 compat

Projected

456.2 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 131, 5940, 11387

Auto

89.1 20%

Teleop

246.5 54%

Endgame

119.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4593, 167, 971

/ 100 compat

Projected

511.7 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4593, 167, 971

Auto

107.3 21%

Teleop

229.2 46%

Endgame

164.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.59 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score456.2pts

Blue projected score511.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 73%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.5
Score range: 381–587
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1066 vs event baseline 419.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

767.3Season APEX758.8

89.1Auto107.3

246.5Teleop229.2

119.9Endgame164.2

132Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	68
teleop	294	300
endgame	148	107
foul	25	0
total	591	475

Result

Final score

591 – 475

Prediction missed · off by 85.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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