Qualification · Qualification 74
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
624.32 – 291.53
98%2%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
490 – 185
Prediction correct · off by 120.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 872.8 ±8.7
Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 172.4Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 172.36Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 279.56Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 676.7 ±9.8
Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 80.01Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 236.2Event APEX 106.14Rank 67Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 251Event APEX 105.38Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1501, 1218, 1114
91
/ 100 compatProjected
624.3 pts
~2.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 1501, 1218, 1114
Auto
154.4 25%
Teleop
304.4 49%
Endgame
156.6 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 11019, 4728, 5338
55
/ 100 compatProjected
291.5 pts
~0.8 RP (championship)
Teams: 11019, 4728, 5338
Auto
36.9 13%
Teleop
153.1 52%
Endgame
104.0 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 61%
Supercharged: 23%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.82 · Blue 0.75
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score624.3pts
Blue projected score291.5pts
Red win probability98%
Event bonus sample282alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 14%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 332.8
- Score range
- 217–699
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
872.8Season APEX676.7
154.4Auto36.9
304.4Teleop153.1
156.6Endgame104
137Consistency171
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 142 | 17 |
| teleop | 260 | 125 |
| endgame | 53 | 28 |
| foul | 35 | 15 |
| total | 490 | 185 |
Result
Final score
490 – 185
Prediction correct · off by 120.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
first-unavailable
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