Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

475.09 – 338.66

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

532 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 832.9 ±9.3

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 129.5Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 197.96Rank 9Record 8-1-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 147.63Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 635.7 ±11.2

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 178.35Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX 14.33Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 145.98Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8884, 2106, 4096

/ 100 compat

Projected

475.1 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 8884, 2106, 4096

Auto

76.1 16%

Teleop

298.2 64%

Endgame

90.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3494, 10162, 4403

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.7 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3494, 10162, 4403

Auto

102.4 30%

Teleop

170.0 50%

Endgame

64.8 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.66 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score475.1pts

Blue projected score338.7pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.4
Score range: 264–550
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 878 vs event baseline 418.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

832.9Season APEX635.7

76.1Auto102.4

298.2Teleop170

90.3Endgame64.8

143Consistency213

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	119	69
teleop	282	186
endgame	121	91
foul	10	0
total	532	346

Result

Final score

532 – 346

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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