Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

477.99 – 385.37

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

605 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 93.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 827.3 ±8.1

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 181.04Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 45.4Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 251.55Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 768.8 ±10.5

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 112.15Rank 37Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 153.85Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11387G.L.E.A.M. - Grass Lake Engineering and Mechanics

Season APEX 166.9Event APEX 119.37Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 5665, 27

/ 100 compat

Projected

478 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10021, 5665, 27

Auto

112.7 24%

Teleop

256.6 54%

Endgame

103.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3006, 3476, 11387

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.4 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3006, 3476, 11387

Auto

69.0 18%

Teleop

232.8 62%

Endgame

75.6 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.45 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score478pts

Blue projected score385.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.6
Score range: 310–553
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1050 vs event baseline 415.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

827.3Season APEX768.8

112.7Auto69

256.6Teleop232.8

103.9Endgame75.6

103Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	120	134
teleop	310	239
endgame	175	72
foul	0	0
total	605	445

Result

Final score

605 – 445

Prediction correct · off by 93.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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