Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

404.2 – 277.59

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

327 – 399

Prediction missed · off by 99.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 640.5 ±10.5

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 130.4Rank 49Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 160.41Rank 50Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 113.39Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.5 ±11.7

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 190.77Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 76.06Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 10.76Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 167, 3604, 9427

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.2 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 167, 3604, 9427

Auto

76.4 19%

Teleop

190.4 47%

Endgame

135.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1189, 9126, 11297

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.6 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1189, 9126, 11297

Auto

72.2 26%

Teleop

152.9 55%

Endgame

51.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score404.2pts

Blue projected score277.6pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.6
Score range: 203–479
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 726 vs event baseline 417.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

640.5Season APEX694.5

76.4Auto72.2

190.4Teleop152.9

135.2Endgame51.9

123Consistency126

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	74	110
teleop	182	218
endgame	66	61
foul	5	10
total	327	399

Result

Final score

327 – 399

Prediction missed · off by 99.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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