Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

412.72 – 356.68

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

672 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 162.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 947.6 ±9.3

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 180.46Rank 24Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1241THEORY6

Season APEX 369.6Event APEX 134.92Rank 5Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9401Midas' Mayhem

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 97.34Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 612.2 ±10.4

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 93.14Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 211.41Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 52.13Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2539, 1241, 9401

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.7 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2539, 1241, 9401

Auto

110.9 27%

Teleop

208.1 50%

Endgame

98.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5801, 4646, 1646

/ 100 compat

Projected

356.7 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 5801, 4646, 1646

Auto

61.5 17%

Teleop

164.6 46%

Endgame

128.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score412.7pts

Blue projected score356.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56
Score range: 283–487
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1095 vs event baseline 413.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

947.6Season APEX612.2

110.9Auto61.5

208.1Teleop164.6

98Endgame128.9

123Consistency149

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	164	91
teleop	362	207
endgame	146	125
foul	0	0
total	672	423

Result

Final score

672 – 423

Prediction correct · off by 162.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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