Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

342.07 – 422.29

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

464 – 552

Prediction correct · off by 125.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 793.4 ±9.3

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 162.58Rank 48Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 50.86Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 128.63Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 737.4 ±9.3

7407Wired Boars

Season APEX 274.2Event APEX 150.93Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 221.58Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 49.78Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6459, 5010, 8884

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.1 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 6459, 5010, 8884

Auto

85.2 25%

Teleop

186.1 55%

Endgame

64.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7407, 7166, 11019

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.3 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 7407, 7166, 11019

Auto

90.9 22%

Teleop

223.4 53%

Endgame

103.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score342.1pts

Blue projected score422.3pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -80.2
Score range: 268–496
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1016 vs event baseline 412.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

793.4Season APEX737.4

85.2Auto90.9

186.1Teleop223.4

64.8Endgame103.9

165Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	122
teleop	232	263
endgame	136	167
foul	20	0
total	464	552

Result

Final score

464 – 552

Prediction correct · off by 125.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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