Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

258.49 – 200.48

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

247 – 310

Prediction missed · off by 60.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.5 ±11.2

10162Viking Robotics

Season APEX 183.7Event APEX 14.98Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 193.47Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 50.04Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 552 ±9.3

2137The Oxford RoboCats

Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 93.03Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX -0.36Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 107.81Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10162, 1501, 2826

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.5 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 10162, 1501, 2826

Auto

82.6 32%

Teleop

84.2 32%

Endgame

92.9 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2137, 587, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.5 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2137, 587, 7598

Auto

46.3 23%

Teleop

86.8 43%

Endgame

69.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score258.5pts

Blue projected score200.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58
Score range: 125–333
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 557 vs event baseline 414.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.5Season APEX552

82.6Auto46.3

84.2Teleop86.8

92.9Endgame69.8

176Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	69
teleop	156	176
endgame	32	65
foul	0	0
total	247	310

Result

Final score

247 – 310

Prediction missed · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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