Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

275.09 – 379.21

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

246 – 480

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 579.9 ±8.7

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 43.56Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 76.53Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 155Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 766.9 ±9.9

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 66.71Rank 28Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2960Automation Nation

Season APEX 257Event APEX 127.66Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 184.84Rank 9Record 8-1-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5665, 1731, 10015

/ 100 compat

Projected

275.1 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 5665, 1731, 10015

Auto

55.6 20%

Teleop

137.0 50%

Endgame

79.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1912, 2960, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.2 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1912, 2960, 2106

Auto

110.5 30%

Teleop

205.3 56%

Endgame

52.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score275.1pts

Blue projected score379.2pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.1
Score range: 200–454
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 726 vs event baseline 415.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

579.9Season APEX766.9

55.6Auto110.5

137Teleop205.3

79.5Endgame52.8

153Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	100
teleop	173	299
endgame	43	46
foul	0	35
total	246	480

Result

Final score

246 – 480

Prediction correct · off by 64.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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