Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

488.55 – 353.18

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

544 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 875.3 ±10.7

7166Red Thunder Robotics

Season APEX 273.7Event APEX 197.25Rank 12Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 105.96Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2767Stryke Force

Season APEX 275.4Event APEX 185.34Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 699.2 ±9.3

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 123.99Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 73.12Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 156.07Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7166, 9126, 2767

/ 100 compat

Projected

488.6 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 7166, 9126, 2767

Auto

125.5 26%

Teleop

254.4 53%

Endgame

98.9 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9084, 2826, 548

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.2 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 9084, 2826, 548

Auto

36.3 10%

Teleop

202.5 58%

Endgame

112.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.7 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score488.6pts

Blue projected score353.2pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 135.4
Score range: 273–569
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 932 vs event baseline 444.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

875.3Season APEX699.2

125.5Auto36.3

254.4Teleop202.5

98.9Endgame112.8

128Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	148	35
teleop	272	187
endgame	119	161
foul	5	5
total	544	388

Result

Final score

544 – 388

Prediction correct · off by 45.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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