Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

261.17 – 193.95

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

302 – 310

Prediction missed · off by 78.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 639.7 ±9.3

5066Singularity

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 67.25Rank 69Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 152.01Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5829Awtybots

Season APEX 179.7Event APEX 41.91Rank 66Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 597.2 ±9.3

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 17.08Rank 74Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 86.28Rank 40Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3284Camdenton LASER 3284

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 90.59Rank 34Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5066, 4593, 5829

/ 100 compat

Projected

261.2 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 5066, 4593, 5829

Auto

86.5 36%

Teleop

128.9 53%

Endgame

28.2 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9771, 4272, 3284

/ 100 compat

Projected

194 pts

~1.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 9771, 4272, 3284

Auto

51.9 27%

Teleop

110.0 56%

Endgame

33.8 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score261.2pts

Blue projected score194pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.2
Score range: 119–336
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 612 vs event baseline 417.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

639.7Season APEX597.2

86.5Auto51.9

128.9Teleop110

28.2Endgame33.8

180Consistency166

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	49
teleop	216	179
endgame	27	77
foul	5	5
total	302	310

Result

Final score

302 – 310

Prediction missed · off by 78.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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