Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

411.35 – 479.99

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

395 – 521

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 823.3 ±9.9

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 158.96Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 126.39Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 126Rank 49Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 819.3 ±9.3

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 57.35Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 154.68Rank 13Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8608Alpha Bots

A+

Season APEX 300Event APEX 267.96Rank 4Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3476, 5338, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

411.4 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3476, 5338, 167

Auto

95.9 24%

Teleop

220.6 54%

Endgame

91.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6907, 103, 8608

/ 100 compat

Projected

480 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 6907, 103, 8608

Auto

65.6 14%

Teleop

322.8 67%

Endgame

90.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.5 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score411.4pts

Blue projected score480pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 37%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.6
Score range: 336–555
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 916 vs event baseline 417.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

823.3Season APEX819.3

95.9Auto65.6

220.6Teleop322.8

91.2Endgame90.6

172Consistency171

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	90
teleop	160	270
endgame	171	156
foul	0	5
total	395	521

Result

Final score

395 – 521

Prediction correct · off by 28.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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