Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

417.25 – 491.7

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

567 – 797

Prediction correct · off by 227.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 873.9 ±10.7

971Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 282.7Event APEX 210.64Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 158.19Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 48.42Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 1024.5 ±9.5

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 200.85Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1114Simbotics

Season APEX 423.1Event APEX 233.23Rank 3Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1511Rolling Thunder

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 57.62Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 971, 9032, 9126

/ 100 compat

Projected

417.3 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 971, 9032, 9126

Auto

90.4 22%

Teleop

226.4 56%

Endgame

89.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 27, 1114, 1511

/ 100 compat

Projected

491.7 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 27, 1114, 1511

Auto

118.3 25%

Teleop

237.4 50%

Endgame

123.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.59 · Blue 2.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score417.3pts

Blue projected score491.7pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.4
Score range: 343–566
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1364 vs event baseline 412.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

873.9Season APEX1024.5

90.4Auto118.3

226.4Teleop237.4

89.6Endgame123.6

106Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	133	174
teleop	290	430
endgame	144	183
foul	0	10
total	567	797

Result

Final score

567 – 797

Prediction correct · off by 227.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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