Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

647.97 – 122.98

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

509 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 128.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 859.2 ±8.7

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 261.76Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 214.73Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 171.48Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.1 ±10.5

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 140.65Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2851Crevolution

Season APEX 246.5Event APEX -26.38Rank 57Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 8.71Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5468, 10021, 131

/ 100 compat

Projected

648 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5468, 10021, 131

Auto

91.5 14%

Teleop

319.9 49%

Endgame

238.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4096, 2851, 11297

/ 100 compat

Projected

123 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4096, 2851, 11297

Auto

63.0 51%

Teleop

38.1 31%

Endgame

22.1 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 65%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.94 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score648pts

Blue projected score123pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 65%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 525
Score range: 49–722
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 750 vs event baseline 413.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

859.2Season APEX637.1

91.5Auto63

319.9Teleop38.1

238.4Endgame22.1

162Consistency164

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	24
teleop	282	145
endgame	154	67
foul	0	5
total	509	241

Result

Final score

509 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 128.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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