Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

349.23 – 304.4

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

345 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 746.5 ±9.3

2881Lady Cans

Season APEX 235.3Event APEX 112.88Rank 17Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 132.19Rank 37Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2075Enigma Robotics

Season APEX 234.4Event APEX 104.16Rank 41Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 574 ±10.5

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 113.07Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 41.01Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 150.32Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2881, 3006, 2075

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.2 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 2881, 3006, 2075

Auto

102.2 29%

Teleop

174.8 50%

Endgame

73.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5801, 7525, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.4 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 5801, 7525, 2583

Auto

53.3 18%

Teleop

191.4 65%

Endgame

50.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score349.2pts

Blue projected score304.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 44.8
Score range: 229–424
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 559 vs event baseline 415.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

746.5Season APEX574

102.2Auto53.3

174.8Teleop191.4

73.2Endgame50.9

147Consistency153

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	36
teleop	207	121
endgame	108	52
foul	0	5
total	345	214

Result

Final score

345 – 214

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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