Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

484.97 – 543.25

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

424 – 622

Prediction correct · off by 69.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 755 ±9.8

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 233.61Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 118.65Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 132.71Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 863.6 ±8.7

3604Goon Squad

Season APEX 224.3Event APEX 126.67Rank 50Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

9470Ctrl-Alt-Defeat

Season APEX 385.2Event APEX 231.1Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 185.48Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1261, 2847, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

485 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1261, 2847, 1619

Auto

113.2 23%

Teleop

265.6 55%

Endgame

103.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3604, 9470, 1189

/ 100 compat

Projected

543.3 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 3604, 9470, 1189

Auto

122.6 23%

Teleop

266.4 50%

Endgame

148.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.57 · Blue 2.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score485pts

Blue projected score543.3pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 6%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -58.3
Score range: 411–617
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1046 vs event baseline 413.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

755Season APEX863.6

113.2Auto122.6

265.6Teleop266.4

103.1Endgame148.8

166Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	150
teleop	164	320
endgame	161	147
foul	5	5
total	424	622

Result

Final score

424 – 622

Prediction correct · off by 69.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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