Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

301.65 – 423.02

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

443 – 536

Prediction correct · off by 127.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 658.3 ±10.5

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 29.94Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 101.4Rank 45Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3494The Quadrangles

Season APEX 203.5Event APEX 170.31Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 703 ±9.8

4646Wildcard Robotics

Season APEX 289.8Event APEX 187.41Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 146.32Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 89.29Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8817, 9001, 3494

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.7 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 8817, 9001, 3494

Auto

35.3 12%

Teleop

160.5 54%

Endgame

98.9 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4646, 9084, 9427

/ 100 compat

Projected

423 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4646, 9084, 9427

Auto

70.1 17%

Teleop

190.5 46%

Endgame

149.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score301.7pts

Blue projected score423pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.4
Score range: 228–497
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 979 vs event baseline 410.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

658.3Season APEX703

35.3Auto70.1

160.5Teleop190.5

98.9Endgame149.8

125Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	55
teleop	263	299
endgame	81	177
foul	0	5
total	443	536

Result

Final score

443 – 536

Prediction correct · off by 127.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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