Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

565.3 – 146.88

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

649 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 911.3 ±8.7

5940BREAD

Season APEX 332.1Event APEX 199.57Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1189Gearheads

Season APEX 254.1Event APEX 189.74Rank 32Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 175.99Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 440.5 ±10.4

587The Hedgehogs

Season APEX 122.7Event APEX 47.37Rank 58Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8817Buccaneer Robotics

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 40.05Rank 72Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 59.46Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5940, 1189, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

565.3 pts

~3.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 5940, 1189, 3476

Auto

121.3 22%

Teleop

296.8 53%

Endgame

137.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 587, 8817, 1646

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.9 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 587, 8817, 1646

Auto

35.5 23%

Teleop

89.3 59%

Endgame

27.5 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.96 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score565.3pts

Blue projected score146.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 418.4
Score range: 67–645
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 711 vs event baseline 444.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

911.3Season APEX440.5

121.3Auto35.5

296.8Teleop89.3

137.6Endgame27.5

157Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	145	23
teleop	353	17
endgame	146	22
foul	5	0
total	649	62

Result

Final score

649 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 84.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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