Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

281.68 – 443.09

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

396 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 78.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 737.7 ±9.3

11019X.PLORE

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 18.83Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 132.28Rank 36Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1868Space Cookies

A+

Season APEX 308.6Event APEX 130.57Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 707.5 ±9.3

10015Bubbles

Season APEX 201.9Event APEX 144.94Rank 70Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4593Rapid Acceleration

Season APEX 228.9Event APEX 157.04Rank 43Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

103Cybersonics

Season APEX 276.7Event APEX 141.11Rank 13Record 7-2-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11019, 548, 1868

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.7 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 11019, 548, 1868

Auto

45.9 17%

Teleop

103.8 38%

Endgame

123.7 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10015, 4593, 103

/ 100 compat

Projected

443.1 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10015, 4593, 103

Auto

44.1 10%

Teleop

224.4 52%

Endgame

159.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score281.7pts

Blue projected score443.1pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.4
Score range: 208–517
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 882 vs event baseline 410.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

737.7Season APEX707.5

45.9Auto44.1

103.8Teleop224.4

123.7Endgame159.6

218Consistency151

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	54
teleop	271	295
endgame	35	102
foul	0	35
total	396	486

Result

Final score

396 – 486

Prediction correct · off by 78.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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