Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.62 – 167.08

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

375 – 407

Prediction missed · off by 179.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 701.2 ±8.8

1646Precision Guessworks

Season APEX 158.3Event APEX 44.41Rank 71Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9771FPRO

Season APEX 146.8Event APEX 34.07Rank 74Record 1-8-1Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 177.14Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 694.9 ±9.3

3572Wavelength

Season APEX 222.5Event APEX 125.63Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 18.55Rank 60Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6907The G.O.A.T

Season APEX 242.6Event APEX 22.9Rank 22Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1646, 9771, 27

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.6 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1646, 9771, 27

Auto

50.0 20%

Teleop

160.4 66%

Endgame

33.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3572, 1731, 6907

/ 100 compat

Projected

167.1 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 3572, 1731, 6907

Auto

104.5 65%

Teleop

67.5 42%

Endgame

-11.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score255.6pts

Blue projected score167.1pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.5
Score range: 93–330
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 782 vs event baseline 408.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

701.2Season APEX694.9

50Auto104.5

160.4Teleop67.5

33.6Endgame-11.3

117Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	83	68
teleop	211	247
endgame	81	92
foul	0	0
total	375	407

Result

Final score

375 – 407

Prediction missed · off by 179.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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