Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

298.4 – 426.26

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

396 – 631

Prediction correct · off by 151.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 707.6 ±9.9

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 136.06Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

131CHAOS

Season APEX 268.3Event APEX 149.63Rank 46Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11297Iron Corsairs

Season APEX 114.2Event APEX 12.71Rank 73Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 772.6 ±8.7

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 139.63Rank 9Record 8-1-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1501Team THRUST

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 168.39Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 118.24Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3476, 131, 11297

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.4 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 3476, 131, 11297

Auto

95.6 35%

Teleop

142.6 52%

Endgame

34.8 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2106, 1501, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.3 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2106, 1501, 2583

Auto

80.7 19%

Teleop

264.3 62%

Endgame

80.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score298.4pts

Blue projected score426.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.9
Score range: 225–499
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1027 vs event baseline 406.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

707.6Season APEX772.6

95.6Auto80.7

142.6Teleop264.3

34.8Endgame80

161Consistency178

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	147
teleop	241	346
endgame	89	118
foul	0	20
total	396	631

Result

Final score

396 – 631

Prediction correct · off by 151.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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