Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

306.23 – 315.82

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

315 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 854 ±11.2

9126Silver Hawks

A+

Season APEX 326.2Event APEX 48.79Rank 38Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 130.53Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3006Red Rock Robotics

Season APEX 276.8Event APEX 126.91Rank 37Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 760.2 ±9.3

8884Knight Owls

Season APEX 249.1Event APEX 110.66Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2847The MegaHertz

Season APEX 275.3Event APEX 110.7Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4272Maverick Robotics

Season APEX 235.8Event APEX 94.46Rank 40Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9126, 5338, 3006

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.2 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9126, 5338, 3006

Auto

82.3 26%

Teleop

159.7 51%

Endgame

69.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8884, 2847, 4272

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.8 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 8884, 2847, 4272

Auto

67.6 22%

Teleop

196.4 63%

Endgame

46.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score306.2pts

Blue projected score315.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.6
Score range: 233–389
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 677 vs event baseline 408.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

854Season APEX760.2

82.3Auto67.6

159.7Teleop196.4

69.6Endgame46.8

178Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	63
teleop	158	213
endgame	100	86
foul	5	0
total	315	362

Result

Final score

315 – 362

Prediction correct · off by 27.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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