Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

379.85 – 357.06

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

607 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 168 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 793.6 ±9.9

9001Delta Force

A+

Season APEX 295.3Event APEX 74.04Rank 45Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1261Robo Lions Team1261

Season APEX 233.3Event APEX 197.2Rank 19Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9032RoboWhales

Season APEX 265Event APEX 108.61Rank 16Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 714.2 ±11.1

5468Chaos Theory

A+

Season APEX 307.9Event APEX 216.95Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7525Pioneers

Season APEX 159.1Event APEX 37.65Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

167Children of the Corn

Season APEX 247.2Event APEX 102.46Rank 49Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9001, 1261, 9032

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.9 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 9001, 1261, 9032

Auto

92.2 25%

Teleop

236.5 63%

Endgame

46.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5468, 7525, 167

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.1 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5468, 7525, 167

Auto

63.6 18%

Teleop

154.8 44%

Endgame

133.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score379.9pts

Blue projected score357.1pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.8
Score range: 284–453
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1073 vs event baseline 404.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

793.6Season APEX714.2

92.2Auto63.6

236.5Teleop154.8

46.5Endgame133.4

164Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	63
teleop	348	248
endgame	168	155
foul	5	0
total	607	466

Result

Final score

607 – 466

Prediction correct · off by 168 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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