Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

360.76 – 336.67

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

306 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 58.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 634.4 ±9.8

5010Tiger Dynasty

Season APEX 219Event APEX 99.32Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 97.55Rank 54Record 4-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

1619Up-A-Creek Robotics

Season APEX 246.4Event APEX 163.89Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628 ±10.4

2826Wave Robotics

Season APEX 215.4Event APEX 65.61Rank 47Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4403PrepaTec - ROULT - Peñoles

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 158.1Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5801CTC Inspire

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 112.96Rank 56Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5010, 9427, 1619

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.8 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 5010, 9427, 1619

Auto

88.2 25%

Teleop

183.1 52%

Endgame

80.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2826, 4403, 5801

/ 100 compat

Projected

336.7 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2826, 4403, 5801

Auto

61.3 18%

Teleop

139.6 42%

Endgame

132.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score360.8pts

Blue projected score336.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample282alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.1
Score range: 264–434
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 580 vs event baseline 406.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

634.4Season APEX628

88.2Auto61.3

183.1Teleop139.6

80.1Endgame132.8

139Consistency230

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	44
teleop	140	183
endgame	69	37
foul	0	10
total	306	274

Result

Final score

306 – 274

Prediction correct · off by 58.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.